Beneath the Surface: The Indo-Pacific’s Underwater Drone Arms Race Heats Up

In the shadowy depths of the Indo-Pacific, a new kind of arms race is unfolding - one that is largely invisible, but no less fierce than the Cold War contests that played out above the waves. The world’s most consequential maritime region has become the proving ground for autonomous underwater vehicles, as rival powers scramble to seize the strategic high ground - at the bottom of the sea.

Once the exclusive domain of manned submarines, the undersea battlefield is being transformed by a new generation of autonomous drones. The stakes are enormous: whoever controls the depths can threaten communication cables, monitor hostile fleets, and potentially blockade entire nations. For China, the US, and a growing list of regional actors, the race to deploy swarms of intelligent, unmanned vehicles is about more than just military might - it’s about rewriting the rules of power projection in the 21st century.

China has taken an aggressive lead. Early this year, Beijing tested the “Feiyi,” a surveillance drone modeled after flying fish, capable of seamlessly transitioning from water to air and returning to its mothership submarine. But the real game-changer is China’s push to build the world’s largest unmanned underwater vehicles - XLUUVs and XXLUUVs - massive, submarine-sized drones designed to operate for extended periods without human crews. These platforms are seen as both a direct challenge to US naval supremacy and a new threat to vital undersea infrastructure, such as the data cables linking Asia to the rest of the world.

The US and its allies are scrambling to catch up. Japan’s defense agency has unveiled its own XLUUV program, aiming for long-endurance missions in contested waters. South Korea, meanwhile, is collaborating with the US Navy to develop swarms of torpedo-like autonomous vehicles - potentially deployable in the South China Sea to deter Chinese aggression against Taiwan. India, too, has joined the fray, testing several classes of indigenous underwater drones to cement its influence in the Indian Ocean.

Australia’s investment is among the most ambitious. Its “Ghost Shark” project - a $1.1 billion fleet of large, autonomous submarines - will provide Canberra with intelligence, surveillance, and offensive capabilities. As a member of both the Quad and the AUKUS pact, Australia’s leap into underwater autonomy signals a coordinated pushback against Chinese expansionism.

Yet, as more players join the underwater drone game, the risks of miscalculation and escalation multiply. The Indo-Pacific’s new arms race is not just about who can build the biggest or smartest drone - it’s about who will control the invisible front lines of tomorrow’s conflicts.

As the silent contest intensifies beneath the waves, the world must grapple with a transformed security environment - one where the future of power, and vulnerability, may be decided far below the surface.

WIKICROOK

• Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV): An Autonomous Underwater Vehicle (AUV) is a robotic device that navigates underwater without a pilot, used for exploration, research, and surveillance.
• XLUUV: XLUUVs are submarine-sized autonomous underwater drones, designed for long-range missions, capable of carrying large payloads for security and surveillance tasks.
• Undersea Infrastructure: Undersea infrastructure includes cables and pipelines on the ocean floor, essential for global internet, energy transport, and secure communications.
• Swarming: Swarming involves coordinated attacks by multiple bots or devices, acting together to overwhelm cybersecurity defenses and evade traditional detection methods.
• Quad (QSD): The Quad (QSD) is a security forum of the US, Japan, India, and Australia, focusing on Indo-Pacific stability and cybersecurity cooperation.